The contribution of the air transport industry in 20 years' time
Demand for air transport is expected to increase by an average of 3.9% per annum over the next 20 years. If this growth is achieved, by 2043 the air transport industry will contribute:
- 16.4 million direct jobs and $2.1 trillion in GDP to the world economy
- A further 48.3 million jobs, generated through the indirect and induced channels, and $3.9 trillion in GDP
- Once the impact of global tourism is taken into account, the air transport industry will contribute a total of 135.4 million jobs and $8.5 trillion in GDP.
The impact of lower growth: a sensitivity analysis
The above forecasts are based on the air transport sector growing at a predicted rate. However, looking ahead 20 years is naturally fraught with uncertainty, and unexpected political and economic events could throw these predictions off course.
If moves towards a more protectionist and fragmented world continue, there is likely to be a decline in air traffic, particularly international travel and air freight. Research into this scenario predicts slower growth in aviation activity, with an average annual growth rate in revenue passenger kilometres* of just 2.6% for the next 20 years. If this more pessimistic scenario materialises, by 2043:
Taking into consideration the direct, indirect, induced and tourism catalytic impacts, there would be:
- 18.5 million fewer jobs supported
- $1.8 trillion less GDP in the air transport sector.
The impact of rapid growth
Another option is that air transport growth returns to levels seen in the pre-Covid period with 5% annual growth over the next 20 years, reaching around 21.3 trillion RPKs in 2043. This could
result in aviation supporting:
- a total of 153.2 million jobs
- $10.3 trillion in GDP contribution.
* Revenue passenger kilometres (RPKs) are measures of traffic, calculated by multiplying the number of revenue-paying passengers aboard a vehicle (for example a plane) by the distance travelled.